Canada Housing Market October 2026: Buyers Gain Power as Toronto and Vancouver Prices Fall

For the first time in years, Canadian homebuyers are the ones with leverage. A pair of major fall outlooks released this month — from REMAX Canada and RBC Economics — paint the same picture: sales are cooling, inventory is climbing, and prices are falling in the country's most expensive cities while smaller markets march the other way.

Whether you're buying, selling, or just watching, here's what the data says about the fall 2026 housing market.

Photo: Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0)

The Big Picture: A Buyer's Market Spreads

Canada's housing market is tilting toward buyers in more communities this fall, according to the REMAX Fall 2026 Canadian Housing Market Outlook released October 8. Brokers reported year-over-year sales declines in 81% of local markets analyzed between January and July. About 32% of those markets are expected to sit firmly in buyers' territory this season — more than double last year's 15.2% — while only 25% still favour sellers.

REMAX now expects national sales to finish 2026 roughly 2% below 2025 levels. Average prices rose in 56% of markets, but declines are clustered in the costliest metros — exactly where affordability is worst.

"The market has not become easy for buyers, but in many regions, it is allowing for a more deliberate purchasing process," said Don Kottick, president of REMAX Canada.

That matches the Canadian Real Estate Association's August data, where senior economist Shaun Cathcart noted sales and price trends were "largely unchanged for a fourth consecutive month" — a market in holding pattern, waiting for a catalyst.

Toronto Slips, Vancouver Corrects, Calgary Holds

RBC Economics assistant chief economist Robert Hogue calls the market "bumpy and uneven" — and the city-by-city split is stark:

Toronto: A gentle recovery that ran from spring through August has stalled. September resales fell 5.2% from August and the benchmark price slipped 0.5% month over month. Hogue blames renewed U.S.-Canada trade tensions and worries about long-term interest rates. REMAX projects the GTA average will close the year at $975,436, down 5.5%. Royal LePage forecasts a 4.5% annual decline to $1,054,129 in Q4.

Vancouver: Still "squarely in correction mode," with prices falling steadily since early 2025. Active listings sit near a decade high, and RBC thinks further price drops may be needed to lure buyers back — possibly into 2027. REMAX projects Greater Vancouver's average at $1,406,305, down 2.1% on the year.

Calgary: Broadly stable. Single-detached resales rose 4.4% with prices down about 1%, though condos were weak — resales down 14.3%, prices down 8.3%.

Montreal: Inventory is up 20% from a year ago on the strongest wave of new sellers in six years, which is holding back price growth. Edmonton: Prices stabilized after earlier declines.

The Bubble Risk Is Fading — For Real This Time

Here's a remarkable turnaround: Toronto and Vancouver, once the poster children for global housing-bubble risk, have dropped off UBS's bubble-risk radar. The bank's latest Global Real Estate Bubble Index finds the correction has been significant — cities flagged with high bubble risk in 2021 saw average real price drawdowns of nearly 20% from their peaks.

"Higher-for-longer financing costs are likely to cap house-price gains in the near term," said Matthias Holzhey, the study's lead author at UBS Global Wealth Management.

The shift reflects tougher policy — from new taxes to purchase bans to rent controls — plus the simple math of stretched affordability meeting higher rates.

Smaller Cities Are the Outliers

While the big coastal metros correct, smaller centres are moving the other way. St. John's is tracking a 10% price gain and Saskatoon 6%, according to REMAX. Limited inventory lifted Thunder Bay prices 10.5% through July. Every Atlantic market analyzed posted price gains.

The pattern is familiar: when Toronto and Vancouver stall, demand and money leak outward to more affordable regions. For buyers priced out of the big cities, the fall market's message is clear — the deals are inland.

What to Watch This Fall

Three things will decide where prices go from here: the Bank of Canada's October 28 decision (markets are pricing possible hikes), September's weak resale data working through the system, and whether the traditional fall buying season shows up at all — September gave little evidence of it in most major markets.

For now, patience favours buyers. In market after market, the negotiating power that sellers held for a decade has quietly changed hands.

Sources

• Canadian Mortgage Professional — Housing outlook turns in buyers' favour
• Grihik — Canada Housing Split: Toronto Slips, Calgary Holds (RBC)
• Wealth Professional — Toronto and Vancouver housing bubble risk eases, UBS finds