Canadians Are Returning to the U.S. — but Road Trips Are Still 31% Below 2024 Levels

Canadians are heading south again — slowly. New figures from Statistics Canada show Canadian-resident return trips from the United States rose 6.8% in September 2026, the sixth straight month of year-over-year growth. But before anyone calls it a comeback, here is the catch: road trips are still 31.1% below September 2024 levels.

The recovery is real, but so is the hole it is climbing out of.

The September Numbers: 1.9 Million Trips, Sixth Month of Growth

Statistics Canada reported 1,889,652 Canadian-resident return trips from the United States by automobile and air in September 2026. The 6.8% annual increase marked six consecutive months of growth compared with the same month a year earlier.

Both ways of travelling improved. Return trips by automobile rose 5.6% year over year, while return trips by air jumped 11.6%. Counting all destinations, Canadian residents returned from 2.9 million trips abroad in September, up 5.6% from September 2025. Returns from overseas countries by air totalled 1.0 million, up 3.2%.

The preliminary figures were published October 13 as part of Statistics Canada's Leading Indicator of International Arrivals to Canada.

The Two-Year Gap: Road Trips Still 31.1% Below 2024

The headline growth hides a much bigger story: the comparison with 2024. Return trips from the U.S. by automobile in September were 31.1% lower than in September 2024, while return trips by air were 18.7% lower.

In other words, the recent gains are growth from a deeply depressed base. Canadians are travelling to the U.S. more than they did in the worst months of the slump — but nowhere near as much as they did before the downturn began.

The highest number of Canadian-resident return trips from abroad came on Labour Day, Monday, September 7, when 195,100 trips were recorded.

Why Did Canadian Travel to the U.S. Collapse?

The slump began in February 2025, after the first round of U.S. tariffs and annexation rhetoric aimed at Canada. What followed was an extraordinary, largely voluntary pullback: Canadians cancelled trips, chose domestic holidays, and turned away from American destinations in numbers the travel industry had never seen.

The scale was historic. In 2025, 7.1 million fewer Canadians made trips to the United States compared with 2024 — a 23.5% collapse, according to Statistics Canada's National Travel Survey. At the worst-hit crossings, the drop was even steeper: at Boundary Bay, facing Point Roberts, Washington, Canadian car returns fell from 763,851 in 2024 to 535,270 in 2025.

Meanwhile, the flow in the other direction held up far better. Americans kept driving north — U.S. residents entering Canada by car were up 7.2% in the first seven months of 2026 — helped by a strong U.S. dollar and Canada's appeal as a destination. The travel spending gap between the two countries shrank from about $6.5 billion to about $1 billion in a single year.

What the Recovery Means for Border Towns and Tourism

For American destinations that rely on Canadian visitors — from the outlet malls of upstate New York to the beaches of Florida and Arizona — any uptick is welcome news. Canadian travellers have long been the largest source of international visitors to the U.S., spending on hotels, shopping, dining, and entertainment.

For Canadian border communities, the picture is mixed. Businesses that lost Canadian shoppers heading south may see some relief, but the old normal is not back yet.

Airlines, meanwhile, have reason for quiet optimism. Air travel is recovering faster than driving, with return trips by air up 11.6% year over year. That suggests the Canadians who are returning first are the ones flying to farther destinations, not the day-trippers who once drove across for gas, groceries, and weekend shopping.

What to Watch Next: Snowbird Season and the Winter Test

The real test of the recovery comes now. Snowbird season — when tens of thousands of Canadians head to Florida, Arizona, and other Sun Belt states for the winter — will show whether the six-month improvement is a durable trend or a seasonal bounce.

Watch three things: whether car trips keep narrowing the gap with 2024, whether air travel holds its double-digit growth, and whether U.S.-bound spending recovers alongside the trip counts. If all three move together through the winter, 2026 will be the year the freeze began to thaw.

Photo: The Peace Arch at the Canada–United States border — Waqcku, via Wikimedia Commons (public domain).

Sources

• Skift — Canadian Trips to U.S. Rise Again — but Far Below 2024 Levels
• Canada's Entrepreneur — International arrivals to Canada rise 9.5% in September as U.S. travel grows: Statistics Canada