Democrats Just Took Both Houses of Congress — But Don't Expect Trump's Canada Tariffs to Fall

Photo: Noclip / Wikimedia Commons (public domain) — File photo: the United States Capitol in Washington, D.C., seat of the Congress that changed hands in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. Not a photo of any Canadian event.

On Tuesday night, American voters handed Democrats control of both chambers of Congress. By Wednesday, Ottawa's answer was blunt: don't expect that to change much — not where it matters most to Canadian jobs.

That is the honest read of a result that looked, at first glance, like a turning point in the trade war. The networks projected Democratic majorities in both chambers after voters punished the governing party over rising prices, the war in Iran and Trump's tariffs, according to CBC News. Democrats flipped Senate seats in South Carolina, Texas and Kansas — Kansas had not elected a Democratic senator since 1932. The trouble is that earthquakes in Washington don't automatically move tariffs.

What actually happened on Tuesday

The scale of the win is not in doubt: the Associated Press count showed Democrats well past the 218 seats needed for a House majority, with 235 seats called by Wednesday. CBC's Mike Crawley tied the outcome to voter anger over the cost of living, the war in Iran and Trump's tariffs, including on Canada.

For Canadians, the temptation is obvious: a weakened president, a Congress that can push back, and maybe — finally — relief from the tariffs hammering steel, aluminum, autos and lumber. Federal and provincial officials had quietly hoped a Republican setback would strengthen Canada's hand, CBC News reported.

LeBlanc: no change in course

Dominic LeBlanc, the minister in charge of Canada-U.S. trade, said on Wednesday the results would not change Ottawa's stance. "To a certain extent last night's results are interesting, but they will not have any significant impact in terms of our government's focus and work," he told reporters, according to Reuters. He plans to speak to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer soon.

Prime Minister Mark Carney struck a similar note a day earlier. "They're asking less and they're offering more," he told reporters on November 3, describing U.S. negotiators, CBC News reported. Several of Canada's red lines — language, culture and its ability to negotiate trade deals with other markets — are no longer on the table, according to The Canadian Press. But the two sides are "not quite there." Trump said on Tuesday the United States was close to a deal. Carney's reply, in effect: not yet.

Why a Democratic Congress may not move the tariffs

The tariffs are largely executive actions, imposed by the president under powers Congress delegated years ago. Congress can object and vote — but it cannot simply switch them off, and the president can veto any attempt to force his hand.

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Carlo Dade of the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy put it in one word when asked what the Democratic gains mean for Canada-U.S. trade: "Nothing." Neither party holds the two-thirds majority needed to override a presidential veto — and the Senate already voted 51-48 in April 2025 to repeal the tariffs on Canada. They are still there. Dade added that the administration could announce more tariffs within days, after a U.S. Trade Representative investigation into overcapacity.

Trump has already signalled his answer, posting an image of a red MAGA-style hat reading "VETO." The new Congress does not take its seats until January 2027, so nothing changes legislatively for two months. Democrats have signalled they will target the tariffs, CBC News reported — but signalling is not repealing.

The stakes for Canadian jobs

Carney called off formal trade talks in August 2026 after new U.S. tariffs hit nearly $28 billion of Canadian goods. Analysis cited by HRD Canada puts roughly 87,000 Canadian jobs at risk from 50-per-cent U.S. tariffs. In September, Canada expanded its retaliatory tariffs with counter-tariffs of 15, 25 and 50 per cent on selected American products.

Ottawa has kept a safety net in place: Employment and Social Development Canada extended its tariff-related Work-Sharing measures to March 31, 2027, letting agreements run up to 76 weeks instead of the usual 38 so employers can cut hours rather than lay staff off. A holding pattern, not a solution.

What to watch next

Three things will tell us whether this week changed anything. First, the LeBlanc-Lutnick-Greer calls, and whether talks — suspended since August — resume. Second, the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement: after the July 1, 2026 review, the U.S. declined to extend the deal, which now runs under annual reviews until 2036. A Democratic Congress gets a louder voice there, but the president still holds the pen.

Third: Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne tables Budget 2026 at 4 p.m. on Thursday, November 5. It will show how much fiscal room Ottawa believes it has, against deficits the Parliamentary Budget Officer puts at roughly $63.3 billion for 2026-27. If the midterms changed the mood in Washington, the budget will show whether Ottawa believes the moment is real — or just interesting.

In this CBC News Power & Politics segment, former U.S. ambassador David Cohen and Senator Peter Welch discuss whether the Democrats flipping the House could end Trump's tariffs on Canada.